POL 346: Applied Quantitative Analysis

# POL 346: Applied Quantitative Analysis
## Final Lecture
### Prof. Wasow PoliticsPrinceton University
### 2021-04-26

---

# Strive to be lit
# from within

---
background-image: url('images/20131018_amabile_int_008-L.jpg')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

???

Teresa Amabile, now a professor at Harvard Business School, ran an experiment on effects of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation on creativity in 1985

---
## Teresa Amabile (1985), "Motivation and creativity"

<img src="images/amabile_1985_motivation_abstract.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
???
She ran an experiment on effects of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation on creativity in 1985
---

```r
creativity <- Sleuth3::case0101 %>% clean_names()
head(creativity)
```

```
##   score treatment
## 1   5.0 Extrinsic
## 2   5.4 Extrinsic
## 3   6.1 Extrinsic
## 4  10.9 Extrinsic
## 5  11.8 Extrinsic
## 6  12.0 Extrinsic
```

```r
t.test(score ~ treatment, data = creativity) 
```

```
## 
## 	Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  score by treatment
## t = -2.9153, df = 43.108, p-value = 0.005618
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -7.010803 -1.277603
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Extrinsic mean in group Intrinsic 
##                15.73913                19.88333
```
???
Remember this?

---
.vertical-center[
.large[
> This experiment provides strong evidence that receiving the "intrinsic" rather than the "extrinsic" questionnaire caused students in this study to score higher on poem creativity (two-sided *p*-value = 0.005 from a two-sample *t*-test as an approximation to a randomization test). The estimated treatment effect-the increase in score attributed to the "intrinsic" questionnaire-is 4.1 points (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 7.0 points) on a 0-40-point scale.
]
]

???
Her study found "strong evidence that receiving the "intrinsic" rather than the "extrinsic" questionnaire caused students in this study to score higher on poem creativity"

We want to be cautious about generalizing from one study but those results are consistent with a range of research that finds when people focus on what their parents want, or grades, or recognition from others, the work tends to be less creative.

So, I hope one lesson of this study and this class is not just how to do a t-test but also the value of being lit from within

---
class: center
background-color: #000000

???
POLL

Now, consider for a moment, would you rather be praised for being smart or for working hard?

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Keep growing

???
Let's think about motivation

---
background-image: url('images/carol_dweck_ted_talk_headshot.jpg')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

???
Carol Dweck, a professor at Stanford has run hundreds studies on what motivates people to learn

---
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_title.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.footnote[Source: Mueller & Dweck (1998), https://bit.ly/mueller_dweck_1998 ]
---
## Evidence praising intelligence `\(\uparrow\)` motivation
.vertical-center[
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para1a_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Widely believed that praising intelligence `\(\uparrow\)` motivation
.vertical-center[
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para1b_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Also evidence praising intelligence may backfire
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para3_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## Study: Students "ace" test, told they're "smart" or they "worked hard" 
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para5_highlighted.png" width="95%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## Then prompted for "goals" with new problems

---
## "Intelligence" condition `\(\uparrow\)` concern about performance

.vertical-center[
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_fig1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## "Intelligence" condition `\(\downarrow\)` concern about learning

.vertical-center[
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_fig1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Students take second test and "bomb" it 
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para6_highlighted.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## How does praise influence persistence & enjoyment?

???
On a 1 to 6 scale where 1 = "not at all" and 6 = "very much"

---
## "Intelligence" praise `\(\downarrow\)` persistence & enjoyment

---
## "Effort" praise `\(\uparrow\)` persistence & enjoyment

---
## Study: complete third round of problems
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para6_5a.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /><img src="images/mueller_dweck_para6_5b.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## How did praise influence third round of problems?
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_fig2ab.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

???
In studies 1 and 3, intelligence praise CAUSED a decrease in number of problems solved.

Control condition about the same.

Effort praise CAUSED a significant increase in the number of problems solved.

---
## Four studies: "intelligence" condition less resilient

???
In studies 5 and 6, similar results.

Intelligence praise CAUSED a decrease in number of problems solved.

Effort praise CAUSED a significant increase in the number of problems solved.

---
## How does praise influence self-reporting of scores? 
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para8_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

## Praise for "intelligence" `\(\uparrow\)` misrepresentation 
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_fig4.png" width="50%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## What of kids labelled "talented" or "gifted"?
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_conclusion_talented_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

## Summarizing Dweck: Non-verbal IQ test & praise

- Intelligence Praise
  
  - "Wow, that's a really good score.  You must be smart at this."
]
]

- Effort Praise
  
  - "Wow, that's a really good score.  You must have tried really hard."
]
]

---
class: center
background-image: url("images/implicit_intelligence.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---

## Mindsets

- Intelligence is a fixed trait
]
]

- Intelligence is a malleable quality, a potential that can be developed
]
]

---

## Goals

- Looking Smart is Most Important
  
  - "The main thing I want when I do my school work is to show how good I am at it."
]
]

- Learning is Most Important
  
  - "It's much more important for me to learn things in my classes than it is to get the best grades."
]
]

---

## Effort beliefs

- Effort is negative
  
  - "To tell the truth, when I work hard at my school work it makes me feel like I'm not very smart."
]
]

- Effort is positive
  
  - "The harder you work at something, the better you'll be at it."
]
]

---
## Strategies after failure

- Helpless

- "I would spend less time on this subject from now on."

- "I would try not to take this subject ever again."

- "I would try to cheat on the next test."

]
]

- Growth Mindset Students

- Resilient

- "I would work harder in this class from now on."

- "I would spend more time studying for the tests."
]
]

---

class:
background-image: url("images/mindset_classroom.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: center
background-color: #000000
<iframe width="1120" height="630" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TTXrV0_3UjY?controls=0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

---
## No students harmed in the making of this research 
 
<img src="images/mueller_dweck_para7_highlighted.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
class: center
background-image: url("images/mindset_book.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Practice deliberately

---
class:
background-image: url("images/road_to_excellence.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/k_anders_ericsson_tes181116_38_hero_0.jpg")
background-position: center
background-size: contain
background-color: #000000

---
## How do you work towards mastery?

.small[.footnote[Cumulative amounts of practice achieved over their lifetime by different groups of violinists in a study by Ericsson, Krampe and Tesch-R\"omer (\textit{Psychological Review}, 100, 363-406, (1993)). By the age of 20, the best musicians at the Music Academy of West Berlin (as judged by the music professors) had practiced for about 10,000 hours, the ``good'' ones for about 8,000, and those trained to become teachers for about 5,000.}]]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

# Think Sushi, Not Steak

---
class:
background-image: url("images/tweet_something_good_in_utah.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/glass_ceiling_orig.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/glass_ceiling_fixed.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/tweet_sentinel_covid_data_manipulation.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/Kevin_Fox_gun_deaths_florida_tweet.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class:
background-image: url("images/gun_deaths_chart_fixed.jpg")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---

# Be humble

---

.center[
<img src="images/correlation_xkcd.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
class: inverse
background-color: #000000
background-image: url("images/serra_hedgehog_fox_video.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
## Statisticians tend to be foxes

- *The Hedgehog and the Fox* (1953), an essay by philosopher Isaiah Berlin

- A reference to a fragment attributed to the Ancient Greek poet Archilochus: πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ, ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα ("a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog one important thing")

- A way to cateogrize thinkers:

- hedgehogs: view the world through the lens of a single defining idea 
  
  - foxes: draw on a wide variety of experiences and for whom the world cannot be boiled down to a single idea
]

---
## Be humble

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Think statistically

---
## There's a stochastic component

<img src="week13_01_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---

## And a systematic component

<img src="week13_01_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---

class: inverse
background-color: #FFFFFF
background-image: url("images/scientific_american_randomness.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: inverse
background-color: #000000
background-image: url("images/familyportrait_small.jpg")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: inverse
background-color: #000000
background-image: url("images/20120902CraigVolpe1599_small.jpg")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: center
background-image: url("images/paw_shooting_pain_small.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: center
background-color: #FFFFFF
background-image: url("images/ted_jen_brea_2021.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---
class: center
background-color: #000000
background-image: url("images/unrest_film_homepage.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

---

# Keep learning

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_01_once_you_decide_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_02_you_must_immerse_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_03_you_have_to_fall_in_love_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_04_you_must_dedicate_your_life_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_05_thats_the_secret_to_success_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
background-image: url('images/jiro_06_and_is_the_key_small.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, bottom

---
class: center
background-color: #000000

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Thank you